A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
