Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
